Why should we worry about Georgia when, lets be frank, many people have very little knowledge or interest of its location, politics or aspirations? They do now! We should have a great interest in Georgia. I have many friends living there who have phoned me over the last few days expressing their fear for the future and fearing the Russians will further bomb the capitol Tbilisi and reoccupy the country.

Located in the troubled region of the Caucasus, little Georgia (4.5 million pop.) broke away from Russia during the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 and has become very western oriented in the last few years, expressing a wish to join the EU and NATO and showing its commitment by sending around 10% of their armed forces to Iraq in support of the UN resolution. The country is also moving along the path of democratisation and needs support to help consolidate its democracy.

Russia has been very difficult towards Georgia since its independence; it has helped militarily to establish, fund and protect two breakaway regions, Abkhazia and South Ossetia. They have at different times cut off energy supplies, expelled thousands of Georgians, installed a trade embargo on Georgian exports, and sent spies into the country. The list of provocative actions is extremely long.

Russia knows that Georgian President Saakashvili can be occasionally impetuous and they deliberately provoked another clash with the Georgians. The Georgian government responded by entering the breakaway province of South Ossetia. The famous “Fog of War” prevents anyone being absolutely certain of the sequence of events – but it was bloody.

On cue the Russians, in the form of the 58th Army, mercenaries and other assorted guys up for a fight, headed quickly for the conflict zone with a pre-arranged plan. They had already reinforced Abkhazia and Russian forces clearly supported the Abkhaz military who it supplied, to attack the small part of Abkhazia, the Kodori Gorge, which Georgia held. Russians launched attacks deep into Georgia, from South Ossetia and Abkhazia. After a fierce period of fighting the Georgian’s withdrew and declared a ceasefire. This was very much a David and Goliath fight, the Georgian armed forces combined have little over 20,000 men, while the Russian army has well over 1,000,000; in the adjacent area alone they have 90,000 soldiers. Russia’s sizeable air force also overwhelmingly out numbers Georgia’s small force of just 8 ageing combat aircraft with little air defence. It also has virtually no navy, just a handful of small boats.

Russia has used its Black Sea Fleet to establish a blockade and has sunk a Georgian vessel. Russia’s campaign went far beyond the South Ossetian border and targeted and destroyed military infrastructure obviously to remove any capabilities for the Georgians to cont8inue t o fight in Georgia itself. I use itself because South Ossetia and Abkhazia are recognised in international law as being part of Georgia. Innocent civilian targets have also been bombed with a high number of deaths and a vast number of refugees fleeing the violence. Some of my many friends have been forced to evacuate because of the violence. There has even been a failed attempt to bomb the oil and gas pipeline which is 30% owned by BP, and is a vital supply of oil and gas to Europe.

It now appears that the Russian President has called a halt to Russia’s military actions, but at what cost? President Medvedev’s offer of a ceasefire does not come without strings. Numerous figures in the Russian government have made it quite clear they want to see the removal of President Saakashvili as they do not trust him because he’s an outspoken critic and is non-compliant with their wishes.

It appeared a day ago (13th August) that the Russians were going to, in the words of the famous American Civil War song, “March through Georgia”. The triumphalist march by General Sherman that broke the Confederacy in the American Civil War led to the song Marching Through Georgia. It appeared the Russians domination of Georgia would be inevitable. They had already subdued Gori (Stalin’s birth place) and much of the rest of the country. It appears that international pressure and the Russian realisation of the damage it had done to its reputation possibly led to the five point ceasefire agreement, negotiated by French President Nicolas Sarkozy, who currently holds the rotating EU Presidency. The French President had a weak hand to play and the agreement will see no more use of force, an end to all military actions, free access to humanitarian aid, Georgian troops to return to their permanent place of deployment, and Russian forces to return to their pre-conflict positions.

At time of writing it is uncertain whether that agreement is going to be honoured by the Russians. Yesterday there were numerous stories of continued Russian military advances into Georgia, and the anxious telephone messages I have been receiving from friends in Georgia were later confirmed. It was widely reported that South Ossetian and irregular Russian forces were looting and pillaging as an act of revenge on innocent Georgian citizens.

I do not know if the Russians have a plan B or plan C to hang around in Georgian territory playing mind games as well as threatening militarily. The rhetoric from Washington has stepped up in the last few days and the US has already committed military aircraft to deliver humanitarian assistance. Naval vessels are also Georgia-bound to deliver supplies to help the tens of thousands of refugees with little food and water, many of whom have fled the violence to Tbilisi. In addition to delivering aid, I believe the Americans are sending a strong signal to Russia by placing non-combat military personnel in Georgia which will add to the potential consequences should Russia decide to go for broke and capture Tbilisi and impose its plan B or plan C on the Georgian people.

So can the international community do anything else? Not much I’m afraid, but I’m sure they’re searching for their limited range of options. In the last few days Bush and others made stronger statements warning Russia of the consequences should they break the ceasefire. The UK has also announced it will give £500,000 to the aid effort. Military support is not an option so we have to hope international pressure from the UN, EU and OSCE will convince Russia to withdraw its forces immediately without delay. It will not be before it has achieved its objectives. If this conflict reignites, Russia will pay a high price; the Georgians will pay even more. If, however, Russia attacks the Georgian capital then we can expect a much stronger reaction from the international community.

The ceasefire is very fragile and no-one knows what might emerge in the difficult days ahead.

Bruce George MP, is Chair of the All-Party Parliamentary Group on Georgia and headed Election Observation Missions to Georgia during the 2004 Rose Revolution